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Why very early signs are good for the GOP in 2022

April 3, 2021. Summarized by summa-bot.

Compression ratio: 18.5%. 1 min read.

TOPSHOT - Voters cast their ballots in the voting booths at the early vote location at the Charleston Coliseum and Convention Center in North Charleston, South Carolina on October 16, 2020. - Many states across the country have seen record turnout for early voting for the 2020 election. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo by LOGAN CYRUS/AFP via Getty Images)

President Joe Biden's first two and a half months in office have been far better received than former President Donald Trump's. Biden's been able to maintain an approval rating north of 50%; something Trump never did.

The generic ballot asks respondents some form of the following question: "If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican Party?"

The party not in control of the White House has done worse in the national House vote than they were doing on the generic ballot at this point in 12 of 14 midterm elections for which we have polling at this point.

If trends hold, the most likely national House result in 2022 given the current generic ballot is Republicans winning by between 4 and 5 points.

While we don't know how redistricting will change things in terms of what type of advantage Democrats will need in the national vote to hold onto the House, any Republican advantage in the popular vote would probably be enough to take the House.

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