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US could reach herd immunity by summer through vaccinations alone, CNN analysis finds

March 5, 2021. Summarized by summa-bot.

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If coronavirus vaccines continue at the current pace, the US could see 70%-85% of the population immunized by September -- a level that should provide herd immunity, a CNN analysis shows.

(CNN)The pace of Covid-19 vaccine administration in the US continues to improve, each day bringing the country closer to herd immunity -- the point at which enough people are protected against a disease that it cannot spread.

This week, President Joe Biden said that the US will have enough vaccine for every adult by the end of May, and a CNN analysis of federal data shows that herd immunity is likely not far behind.

At the current pace of about 2 million shots per day -- the latest seven-day average of doses administered reported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- the US could reach herd immunity by summer through vaccinations alone.

More than 8% of the population -- nearly 28 million people -- is already fully vaccinated, according to the latest data from the CDC.

If vaccination continues at its current rate and the two-dose vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were the only options available, 70% of the US population could be fully vaccinated by mid-September.

At the current pace of about 2 million doses per day, including 100 million doses of the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, 70% of the US population could be fully vaccinated around the end of July and 85% by mid-September, according to a CNN analysis.

Assuming there's no overlap between people with natural immunity and those protected through vaccination, herd immunity could be reached as early as June.

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