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The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, 3 weeks from Election Day

October 13, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

It's been a rough couple of weeks for President Donald Trump, and that's squeezing some GOP senators who were already facing competitive reelections.

And three weeks from Election Day, with millions of voters already casting their ballots, the national environment seems to be benefiting Democrats running for Senate -- even if one of their candidates in a top-tier race is facing negative headlines about his personal life.

Blue states like Colorado and Maine now look even tougher for Republicans.

Despite Sen. Susan Collins being a longtime incumbent, who's arguably a better candidate than first-term Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, Maine now moves ahead of North Carolina on this list of seats most likely to flip partisan control.

The senator most likely to lose is still a Democrat -- Doug Jones of Alabama -- while Democratic Sen. Gary Peters still faces a competitive race in Michigan.

But eight of the top 10 seats most likely to flip are still held by Republicans, who are defending 23 seats this year to Democrats' 12.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber -- or three if they win the White House, since the vice president breaks ties in the Senate.

Including advertising spending to date and future reservations from candidates and outside groups, Democrats are spending nearly $26 million to Republicans' $30 million in the Sunflower State, according to a CNN analysis of CMAG data as of Monday.

Another race that's making Republicans nervous is the second US Senate seat in Georgia, a demographically changing state.

No matter how good national polling looks for Biden, it's not likely to get Jones across the finish line in such a Republican state.

"You choose one Republican and one Democrat, and it works," Gardner says as a picture of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet flashes onscreen.

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Susan Collins

Shortly after being sidelined by a Covid-19 diagnosis, Tillis may have caught a break, although it remains to be seen how Democrat Cal Cunningham's sex scandal could shake up a race that Republicans acknowledge very much needed shaking up.

The Army reservist and Democratic former state senator raised more than $28 million in the third quarter and had been consistently outraising Tillis and leading in polling.

Having raised nearly $29 million in the third quarter -- a staggering sum that's dwarfed only by this quarter's other unusually high and record-breaking hauls -- Greenfield should have plenty of resources to carry that message through Election Day. But this is one of the places where Republicans are hoping a Supreme Court battle energizes conservatives and tilts the state back their way.

And Republicans argue that Democrats wouldn't be spending here if Peters were in better shape.

Including advertising spending to date and future reservations from candidates and outside groups, Democrats are spending about $55 million compared with Republicans' $43. 5 million, according to a CNN analysis of CMAG data as of Monday.

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