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Senate Democratic candidates are raising tons of money. That matters.

July 11, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

The US Capitol Building on March 25, 2020, in Washington, DC. - The US Senate was poised to pass a massive relief package on Wednesday for Americans and businesses ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic as New York hospitals braced for a wave of virus patients. (Photo by Alex Edelman / AFP) (Photo by ALEX EDELMAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Senate Democratic candidates from Montana to Maine are raising eye-popping amounts of money this year, per campaign officials. Montana's Steve Bullock took in $7.7 million, while Maine's Sara Gideon raked in more than $9 million -- and those are just a couple of the big hauls this past quarter. That's big news given that Democrats need just a net pickup of three to four seats for control of the Senate, depending on who wins the presidential race.

(CNN)Senate Democratic candidates from Montana to Maine are raising eye-popping amounts of money this year, per campaign officials.

That's big news given that Democrats need just a net pickup of three to four seats for control of the Senate, depending on who wins the presidential race.

Historically, candidates who raise more money increase their chances of winning significantly.

This means the more money Democrats are raking in, the better chance they have at winning a Senate majority.

For those years, I compared how much money the Democratic and Republican candidates ended up raising from individual donors.

Democratic challengers who outraise Republican incumbents do about 20 points better than those who don't.

Likewise, Republican challengers who outraise Democratic incumbents do about 15 points better than those who don't.

In such an election, a Democrat who raises twice as much as a Republican is forecast to win by 3 points.

If the Democrat takes in four times as much as the Republican, the Democrat would be forecast to win by 5 points.

Imagine a hypothetical universe in which every Democrat raised twice as much as every Republican, as was about the average in 2018.

Given the current polling and other factors, Democrats would be forecast to win two additional seats in such a setting than they would if the money race were even.

Two seats could make all the difference in Senate control given Democrats' need for that net pickup of three to four seats.

Obviously, not every Democratic candidate is going to raise double the amount as his or her opponent.

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