Clear. 53   F New York
AI-Powered News Summarizer
Top Stories

Opinion: Trump shouldn't get credit for the economic rebound. Neither should Biden

April 5, 2021. Summarized by summa-bot.

Compression ratio: 42.4%. 2 min read.

Mandatory Credit: Photo by Al Seib/Shutterstock (11838124m) People dining at Blue Plate Taco in Santa Monica as people take advantage of the warm weather during the COVID-19 Spring break in Southern California Monday. Santa Monica Pier and Promenade on Monday, March 29, 2021 in Santa Monia, CA. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times). Santa Monica and Venice people talk about reopenings with spring break and the holidays, Santa Monica Pier and Promenade, Santa Monia, California - 29 Mar 2021

Presidents typically get too much credit -- or blame -- for the US economy's current performance, while the unseen drivers of the economic cycle get way too little.

Presidents typically get too much credit -- or blame -- for the US economy's current performance, while the unseen drivers of the economic cycle get way too little.

The pandemic-related shutdowns suddenly plunged the economy into a deep recession over a year ago, but as the economy began opening up, economic activity automatically rebounded, starting a new cyclical upturn.

Real GDP growth bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020 and has been reviving ever since.

Naturally, a rebound in growth in the first quarter of 2021 is to be expected as vaccinations ramp up and stimulus checks boost spending, allowing the economy to open up more quickly.

As important as vaccinations and stimulus checks are to people's lives, the cyclical upturn in GDP growth that began last spring would have continued regardless.

We know this because the forward-looking Weekly Leading Index (WLI), which forecasts the economy's direction over the coming few months based on its cyclical drivers, anticipated that upturn in GDP growth a year ago.

This upswing in growth started well before the 2020 election and is now benefiting Biden.

Similarly, Trump's presidency benefited from a cyclical upswing in economic growth that began under President Obama, well before Trump was elected.

Again, the evidence comes from actual GDP growth, which turned up in the second quarter of 2016.

Because stronger economic growth prospects in 2016 were international in scope, we knew before the 2016 presidential election that the global growth outlook had already begun to improve.

Then, in early 2017, the cyclical upturns in our forward-looking international indexes flagged the brightest global growth outlook since 2010.

And Weekly Leading Index growth, having turned up during the last year of Trump's presidency, continues to climb apace.

Summarizer is on Google News. Now you can get the latest AI summarized news on your favorite news platform.

Don't like Google News? We have an RSS Feed for you.

Suggestions