Opinion: The census is a lucky break for Republicans
April 27, 2021. Summarized by summa-bot.
Compression ratio: 21.1%. 1 min read.
A photograph of the United States 2020 Census questionnaire and other Census documents on April 26, 2020 in Silver Spring, Maryland. (Photo by Kristoffer Tripplaar/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)
Lincoln Mitchell writes that the changes in Congressional seating resulting from the new census data could cost the Democrats control of the House in 2022.
The impact of the census on the 2022 midterm elections is more complex because it is not only a question of what states lose or gain seats, but of who draws the district lines for those seats.
For example, while New York has lost a seat, the fact that the Democratic state legislature draws the districts makes it likely that it will be a Republican member of Congress who will lose their seat.
The districting story is a little more complex in California where an independent commission draws the lines, but because the state is heavily Democratic, it is possible that the Republicans will lose a seat there as well.
Texas, Montana and West Virginia, as well as more politically competitive states like Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania can be expected to draw new lines that favor the Republican Party.
Given that the Republican Party only needs to flip nine seats to win control of the House, every one of these new seats, and each new set of district lines, will be of great importance to both parties.
Republican legislatures in states like Texas, which gained two seats, but also states like Wisconsin, which neither gained nor lost any, typically draw districts to keep Republican majorities in the state legislatures.