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Opinion: Prepare for a jobs boom in 2021

January 14, 2021. Summarized by summa-bot.

Compression ratio: 19.7%. 1 min read.

A worker wearing a protective mask cleans glassware at Jungsik restaurant in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020. ??New York City??restaurants reopen indoor dining on Sept. 30 after a six-month, pandemic-induced shutdown, many restaurateurs worry they will struggle merely to get by. Photographer: David 'Dee' Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A strong recovery in the second half of 2021 may lead the unemployment rate to return to its natural rate of about 4.2 to 4.5% in 2022.

A strong recovery in the second half of 2021 may lead the unemployment rate to return to its natural rate of about 4. 2 to 4. 5% in 2022.

As a result of the far-reaching and rapid spread of Covid-19, state and local governments' pandemic-mitigation policies are becoming more restrictive and consumers are again limiting their consumption of in-person services.

Shrinking employment may continue over the rest of the winter, especially for the industries that suffered the most from the pandemic thus far, like restaurants, travel, accommodation, out-of-home entertainment and personal services.

But while the outlook for the winter is bleak, the US labor market should get much stronger in the second half of 2021, mostly because of the impact of the vaccination campaign.

The unemployment rate will also be held down by the disappointing trend of declining labor force participation of other populations, especially men without a college degree.

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