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New polls show Joe Biden is winning suburbanites by a historic margin

July 19, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

The new ABC News/Washington Post poll is the latest to show former Vice President Joe Biden on a roll.

Biden's advantage in the polls is most evident in the suburbs, where he is earning a historic amount of support for a Democrat.

Biden is up by a 52% to 43% margin among suburban voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Other polls in the last month show Biden doing even better among suburban voters.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has Biden beating Trump 60% to 35% among suburban voters.

Our early June CNN poll had Biden with a 14-point lead in the suburbs.

In the average of all the polls, Biden's ahead by nearly 20 points with suburban voters.

Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters.

A look across the final polls and post-election polls from four years ago shows anything from a small Clinton advantage (e. g. 5 points in the final Fox News poll) to a small Trump advantage (e. g. 4 points in the exit poll).

If you were to go back over time, the exit poll data reveals that no Democrat has won the suburban vote by more than 5 points since at least 1972, when the first exit poll was taken in a presidential election.

Winning Democratic candidates do tend to carry the suburbs, though none by as much as any of the polls currently have Biden ahead in them.

Back in 2008 (the best year for Democrats this century), Obama won in the suburbs by 2 points in the exit polls.

The final ABC News/Washington Post poll had him winning in the suburbs by 5 points.

Although no exit poll data is available from that year, the American National Election Studies shows he did about 10 points worse in the suburbs than he did nationally.

The clear difference between the 1964 and 2020 elections is that Biden, at this point, is running ahead of his national numbers in the suburbs.

Biden's lead overall in the polls with a suburban crosstab averages out to be about 13 points.

In the latest Monmouth University poll, Biden leads 53% to 40% overall among registered voters.

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