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How Biden has more paths than Trump to 270 electoral votes

October 25, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

Poll of the week: A new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 51% to President Donald Trump's 44%.

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 51% to President Donald Trump's 44%.

When you look at the Electoral College maps, Biden simply has more pathways to 270 electoral votes than Trump does at this point.

If Trump wants to win, he'll need to win a number of states Biden has a lead in, including Pennsylvania.

Just take the states where Biden has an advantage of 5 points or greater right now.

If Biden wins all of those states, he gets to 278 electoral votes.

Now, if Biden were to fail to win in Pennsylvania, it's pretty easy to draw him up another map where he gets to an Electoral College majority.

Remember, Nebraska (like Maine) awards the winner in each of its congressional districts an electoral vote, and Biden is up greater than 5 points in the average of polls in the second district.

This map gets Biden to exactly 270 electoral votes.

That means that there's a decent shot Biden may hold on to Arizona, even if there is a miss that affects those Great Lake states.

Biden is up by about 3 points in the average of polls in each state.

If you add, Florida, North Carolina and the states to the states Clinton won, Biden gets over 270 electoral votes without any of the Great Lake battlegrounds.

Even if he were to take the states where he leads and the ones where Biden currently has a less than 5-point advantage including Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, Trump would still fall short of 270 electoral votes.

Outside of a real long shot, what Trump needs to do is simple but difficult: take Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and one Great Lake battleground state in addition to most of the states he won in 2016.

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