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Democrats are stronger favorites in tight race for Senate control

August 1, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 04: The U.S. Capitol is seen on February 4, 2020 in Washington, DC. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to deliver his State of the Union Address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress tonight. (Photo by Alex Edelman/Getty Images)

Democrats know that if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidency, he'll need a Democratic-controlled Senate to accomplish a good part of his agenda. An examination of the Senate landscape reveals good news for them.

The Democrats' chance of wresting control away from Republicans has increased over the last few months.

Democrats now have a little more than a 7-in-10 (70%) shot to win at least 3 seats and a little more than a 6-in-10 (60%) chance of winning at least 4 seats.

Democratic chances to win in a number of these races have gone up since May.

Democrats, though, are now favorites to win four Republican-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina.

In all of them, Democrats have at least a 2-in-3 (67%) chance.

In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly holds a 5 point or greater lead over Republican Sen. Martha McSally in most polls.

Republican Tommy Tuberville leads in the polls and has a little less than a 9-in-10 (90%) chance of defeating Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in the deep red state of Alabama.

Indeed, Republicans have worse than a 1-in-10 chance (10%) in every other Democratic held seat.

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