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Biden is eating into Trump's Rust Belt base

August 2, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

Poll of the week: A new Franklin & Marshall College poll from Pennsylvania finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 50% to President Donald Trump's 41%.

Biden has clear leads in an average of the last three CNN approved polls in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden's upward trajectory is because of vast improvements among White voters in a comparison of Biden's standing in each poll to how Clinton did with them in an average of post-election estimates from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study and Center for American Progress.

Amazingly, however, these Rust Belt numbers among White voters are so good for Biden that he's in a considerably better position than even the final high quality pre-election polling that looked rosy for Clinton in each state.

Biden's doing on average 12 points better among Whites without a college degree than Clinton did in the combined sample of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin polls.

Biden's doing about 10 points better among Whites without a college degree than Clinton did in a comparison of current polling to pre-election polls from 2016.

In other words, the shift among Whites and White voters without a college degree we're currently witnessing in the polls will have a greater impact on the outcome in these key Rust Belt battleground states.

At this point, there isn't a large difference between the national and state polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

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