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Analysis: Why Biden's national lead matters

September 13, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event on manufacturing and buying American-made products at UAW Region 1 headquarters in Warren, Mich., Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 51% to 44% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. Among registered voters, it's Biden 51% to 42% for Trump.

The average of the two, an 8-point Biden advantage, is in-line with the national polling average.

A 2- or 3-point miss in the national polls would be far from unheard of, but it's not as likely as you might think, at least in comparison to state polling.

A simple average of the national polls has been off by 1. 8 points in elections since 1972.

During the same period, there has never been a year in which a simple average of the national polls has been off by more than 6 points.

The point is that a national polling miss isn't as likely as a miss in key swing states.

There have been about 20 polls nationally that do.

Further, there will be points where we just don't get any polls from some important states.

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