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Analysis: Why Biden is putting so many red states in play

October 18, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks after a virtual meeting on safe school reopening, in Wilmington, Delaware, on September 2, 2020. (Photo by JIM WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Georgia voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 51% and President Donald Trump at 44%.

It makes a lot of sense given the national polling that Biden is putting a lot of seemingly red states into play.

For now though, Biden is leading in the national polls by about 10 points.

Now take a look at the current average of polls in the states Trump won by 10 points or less in 2016.

We're shifting these states 8 points because Biden's winning nationally by 10 points, and Clinton won nationally by 2 points.

What should be quite apparent is the state polls look almost identical to what you'd expect given a uniform shift of 8 points across states.

Moreover, there is no bias with Biden doing 8 points better than Clinton did in the average of state polls, as you'd expect with the national polls where they are.

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