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Analysis: Trump gains in latest polling, but Biden's still in control of the presidential race

September 13, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

President Trump has shrunk former Vice President Biden's lead in the presidential race over the last few months. The overall dynamics of this race remain unchanged, however. Despite Biden's edge creeping down, he continues to hold a clear advantage.

The average of live interview polls that month had Biden up 49% to 42%.

This 7 point Biden advantage is exactly where the long-term average of polls since the beginning of the year put the race.

Yesterday, I noted that Biden was doing a little better than 5 points than Clinton across four states (Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin) the New York Times/Siena College poll conducted surveys in.

These polls show Biden doing about 7 points better than Clinton on average in these states.

If each candidate won the state they were leading in right now in the polling averages, Biden would take north of 330 electoral votes.

If you only gave Biden the states where he is at 50% or higher and has a 5 point or greater lead, he'd still have over 270 electoral votes.

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