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Analysis: If nothing matters, Biden likely wins

September 12, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

Some people call Donald Trump's term in office the "nothing matters" presidency. The phrase is usually applied to Trump by his detractors, who cannot believe his standing with the American public is stable despite what he says and does. They mean it as good news for Trump.

Trump scored a -9 point net approval rating in the 2018 exit polls.

When you reallocate races where one of the major parties wasn't running a candidate, the Democratic margin shrinks to 7 points.

Biden's advantage in the national polling over Trump right now is about 8 points.

With Trump at the same level of popularity as he was two years ago, the national margin in the marquee race seems to be identical.

Trump lost these states by a combined margin of less than a point four years ago.

Take a gander at the results in the Times polls in Minnesota (50% Biden to 41% Trump, a 9 point margin), Nevada (46% to 42%, a statistically insignificant 4 point margin) and Wisconsin (48% to 43%, a 5 point margin).

The only state where the Times result differed by more than a few points from the 2018 House vote was New Hampshire, which put Biden and Trump well within the margin of error at 45% for Biden to 42% for Trump.

Her net favorability (favorable - unfavorable) rating of -12 points in the exit polls was not only vastly below then-President Barack Obama's net approval rating (+8 points), but her net favorability rating was below that of the Democratic Party as a whole (-2 points).

If that continues to be the case through this election, Trump will almost certainly lose because Biden, not Clinton, is on the ballot.

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