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Analysis: Amy Coney Barrett is winning even as Trump is losing

October 17, 2020. Summarized by summa-bot.

President Donald Trump's decision to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has not been a game changer in the presidential race. He is still well behind former Vice President Joe Biden with less than three weeks to go.

(CNN)President Donald Trump's decision to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has not been a game changer in the presidential race.

She's very likely to be confirmed and doing fairly well in the court of public opinion.

Beyond some disqualifying scandal for Barrett, the only way Democrats likely could stop her nomination is for Republicans to face insurmountable public pressure not to put her on the Supreme Court.

I have noted in the past that public opinion has been important in determining how many votes a Supreme Court nominee gets.

Just 38% of registered voters had a positive view of Kavanaugh as he was getting confirmed, according to CNN/SSRS polling.

This net popularity of -10 point rating was the worst for a Supreme Court nominee since Robert Bork in 1987, who came in with a -11 point rating.

CNN/SSRS' poll earlier this month had her with a +10 point net positivity rating among registered voters.

Beyond her own personal popularity, polls from CNN, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal show voters are split basically evenly on whether the Senate should confirm her.

That 14-point split looked more like the polling that had Biden clearly ahead in the presidential race than the polling on Barrett now.

Indeed, what makes Barrett's polling so strong is that she's doing it despite Trump being unpopular.

In the CNN poll, her net popularity rating is running 28 points ahead of Trump's net favorability rating.

The average Supreme Court nominee since 1987 has run about 15 points ahead of the popularity rating of the president at the time.

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